By This question used to have a clearer answer. Go to college, get a degree, earn significantly more over your lifetime, and the debt is worth it. The numbers supported that argument pretty cleanly for most of the 20th century and into the early 2000s.
It’s genuinely harder to make that argument now, and anyone who makes it without qualifications is probably selling something.
The Wage Premium Still Exists
To be honest about this: the college wage premium — the average earnings advantage that bachelor’s degree holders have over high school graduates — still exists. It’s real. Economists measure it regularly and it consistently shows up in the data.
So let’s start from there instead of pretending the case for college is entirely illusory. On average, across the full working life, people with four-year degrees still earn more than people without them. That’s true.
The Problem With “On Average”
Here’s where it gets complicated. “On average” masks enormous variation. The wage premium for someone who graduates with a computer science degree from a well-regarded university and lands a job in their field is substantial. The wage premium for someone who spends four years getting a communications degree from a private school with high tuition, takes on $120,000 in debt, and enters a crowded, low-starting-salary job market is… much less clear.
What you study, where you study it, what it costs, and what job market you graduate into all matter enormously. The blanket “college is worth it” argument treats these as a single category of decision when they’re actually wildly different decisions with wildly different financial outcomes.
The rise of credential inflation has also complicated the calculation. In an economy where more jobs require degrees than used to — not necessarily because the work demands it but because employers use degree requirements as a screening tool — the degree has become partly a cover charge rather than entirely a skills signal. You’re paying for access as much as for knowledge.
What the Debt Actually Costs
The financial math on college debt has gotten worse in ways that are specific to this era. Interest rates on student loans, which were very low through the early 2020s, have risen. Loan origination for graduate and professional degrees comes with no cap — which is how people end up with $200,000+ in law school or medical school debt that can take literal decades to meaningfully reduce.
The income-driven repayment reforms, the PSLF changes, the various forgiveness programs — these have helped some people. They’ve left a lot of people in complicated situations where they’re making payments that barely cover interest, not building toward any finish line, on debt they took on for a degree that wasn’t worth what they paid for it.
What’s Happening on the Alternatives Side
Here’s what genuinely has changed: the alternatives to a four-year degree have gotten more legitimate, better compensated, and more clearly articulated.
The skilled trades — plumbing, electrical work, HVAC, welding — are genuinely facing labor shortages that have driven wages up substantially. A licensed plumber in most markets makes an income that compares favorably to a lot of college-educated professionals, without the college debt, and often without the six-figure starting salary prerequisite that only exists in certain industries. Community college and vocational programs that lead to these credentials cost a fraction of a four-year degree.
Software development coding bootcamps have had a mixed track record — some have excellent outcomes, some have been essentially scams — but the underlying model of focused, skills-based training for specific in-demand roles has legitimacy.
Employer-sponsored training programs have expanded in some sectors. Apprenticeship models, more common in Europe than the U.S., have gotten more policy attention domestically.
The Honest Answer
College is worth the cost for some people, for some majors, at some institutions, under some financial conditions. It’s not worth the cost for everyone, for every major, at every price point.
That’s not a satisfying answer. It’s also the true one. The decision deserves more careful individual analysis than either “of course, it’s an investment in yourself” or “it’s a scam run by academics” suggests. Look at the specific debt load. Look at the realistic starting salaries in the specific field. Look at what completion rates look like at the specific school. Do the math on what the monthly payment will actually be.
It can work out beautifully. It can also be a financial weight that shapes the next two decades of your life in ways you didn’t understand when you were 17 filling out applications.