By Israel military campaign against Iran began in late February 2026, are sending ripples far beyond energy markets. The narrow waterway normally carries about one-fifth of global seaborne oil and a significant share of fertilizer raw materials and products. With both Iran limiting passage and the United States enforcing a naval blockade, shipping volumes have dropped sharply. UN Secretary-General António Guterres and officials from the Food and Agriculture Organization have warned that prolonged disruption risks triggering a broader food emergency, especially as the critical planting season approaches in many regions.
UN Secretary-General’s Warning
António Guterres addressed the issue directly at the United Nations, describing the economic shock as immediate and widespread. He pointed to surging transport and insurance costs, along with the worst supply chain disruptions since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. Guterres appealed for the strait to reopen without tolls or discrimination so that trade could resume and ease pressure on the global economy.
His comments came as diplomats from dozens of countries, led by Bahrain, called for urgent action to restore normal shipping. A proposed resolution on reopening the waterway faced opposition in the Security Council, with China and Russia blocking progress. Guterres stressed that millions of people, particularly in Africa and South Asia, could face heightened risks of hunger and poverty if the situation drags on.
Fertilizer Supply at Risk
Up to one-third of global trade in fertilizer raw materials, including ammonia, nitrogen, urea, and phosphates, typically moves through the Strait of Hormuz. Disruptions have already tightened supplies at a moment when many farmers prepare for the next planting cycle. UN officials note that countries in Africa and South Asia, which depend heavily on Gulf-sourced fertilizers, stand to suffer the most.
Without timely access to these inputs, crop yields could decline noticeably. The FAO has cautioned that lower productivity would translate into reduced harvests later in the year, driving food prices higher. Even modest delays now risk compounding into larger shortages, hitting import-dependent nations hardest and straining already vulnerable food systems.
Rising Costs and Supply Chain Pressure
Higher fuel prices and rerouted shipping have increased logistics expenses across the board. Insurance premiums for vessels operating near the region have climbed, while some operators avoid the area entirely. These added costs flow through to farmers and consumers in the form of more expensive inputs and transported goods.
Global food prices have shown only modest increases so far, but analysts warn against complacency. The full effects often appear with a lag, particularly as the planting season advances. If fertilizer shortages lead to lower yields, the impact could extend well into 2027, potentially sparking a new wave of inflation in food staples for households around the world.
Vulnerability in Developing Regions
Nations in sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Asia face acute risks because food represents a large share of household spending. Many already operate on thin margins, where even small price rises can push families deeper into food insecurity. The FAO estimates that prolonged disruption could leave millions more people facing acute hunger.
Sudan, Somalia, and several South Asian countries appear especially exposed due to their reliance on imported fertilizers and energy. Aid organizations worry that existing humanitarian programs may not keep pace if shortages intensify. The UN has highlighted the potential for a cascade of effects, from reduced agricultural output to broader economic strain in low-income countries.
Calls for a Humanitarian Corridor
Guterres has proposed a UN-led initiative to create safe passage for fertilizer shipments and other essential goods. The plan would involve a task force to coordinate orderly maritime transit despite the ongoing tensions. Some countries support the idea as a practical way to protect global food security without taking sides in the conflict.
Progress on the proposal has been slow, however. Diplomatic buy-in remains incomplete, and the naval realities in the Arabian Sea complicate implementation. Still, UN officials continue to push the framework, arguing that protecting fertilizer flows serves a broader humanitarian interest separate from the political standoff.
Outlook and the Clock Ticking
As late April 2026 continues, the window for preventive action narrows. The next planting seasons in key regions will determine whether current disruptions translate into measurable harvest shortfalls. Diplomats and aid groups watch closely for any movement in US-Iran talks that could ease the dual restrictions in the strait.
For now, the warnings from the United Nations serve as a reminder of how interconnected global systems have become. Energy disruptions in one critical chokepoint can quickly threaten food availability thousands of miles away. Whether the parties involved can find enough common ground to reopen shipping lanes will shape not only energy markets but also the daily meals of millions in the months ahead.